World Meteorological Organization (WMO) El Niño Update | June 2023

  • The tropical Pacific is experiencing El Niño conditions, which is likely to persist until at least December 2023.
  • There is a high probability (90%) that El Niño conditions will continue until at least December 2023.
  • The presence of positive temperature anomalies beneath the surface of the eastern Pacific, along with a positive thermocline depth anomaly, has resulted in significant warmth not only in the eastern Pacific but also extending further westward.
  • The coupling between the warming in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific and the overlying atmosphere has shown limited strength so far, but it is expected to strengthen in the coming months.
  • Based on model predictions and expert assessment, there is a very high likelihood (approximately 90% chance) of El Niño prevailing during the second half of 2023.
  • The likelihood of the current El Niño weakening with a return to an ENSO-neutral state is estimated to be about 10% during the forecast period.
  • La Niña re-development is practically ruled out until at least the end of 2023.

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