Food security and nutrition situation in eastern Africa Q1 & Q2 2023 (July 2023)

  • Eastern Africa is facing food insecurity due to drought and conflict.
  • In Sudan, 4.6 million people are food insecure, 63 percent of the population due to conflict and insecurity.
  • In Ethiopia, 20.1 million people are food insecure due to severe drought and conflict-related shocks. In Kenya, 5.4 million people are projected to be food insecure between March and June 2023.
  • In Somalia, the food security situation remains dire but has improved since the scale-up of humanitarian assistance in 2022. In South Sudan, 1.4 million children below the age of five are estimated to be acutely malnourished.
  • Food insecurity in the Eastern Africa region is likely to remain high through the second half of the year.
  • Conflict in South Sudan, Ethiopia, and Somalia is a major driver of food insecurity, and the region as a whole is facing a severe drought.
  • The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) released an El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) June update indicating a 90% probability of El Niño conditions over July-September.
  • This is likely to improve food security in the Horn of Africa by improving water availability for crop production and livestock. However, it is also likely to decrease the possibility of massive flooding in Sudan and South Sudan.
  • In most countries across the region, food prices are likely to remain high over the coming months, and replenishment of market supply stocks will not be immediate.
  • The suspension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI) is likely to lead to international price shocks and undermine the supply of key staples in countries heavily dependent on imports.
  • All this will have repercussions at the local market level in terms of price spikes, which, in turn, will erode households’ purchasing power and eventually further exacerbate economic access to food.
  • Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, South Sudan, and Sudan remain key countries of concern moving into the 2nd half of 2023 due to macroeconomic challenges and effects of severe drought and the fallout from the conflict in Sudan.

Secondary source

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