Global Food Security Update, July 2023

  • Since the last update on July 13, global agricultural commodity prices have increased, with maize, wheat, and rice prices rising by 12%, 14%, and 3%, respectively.
  • Food inflation remains high in many countries, with inflation in some cases exceeding overall inflation.
  • The State of Food Insecurity and Nutrition in the World report indicates that global progress in reducing hunger has stagnated.
  • The withdrawal of Russia from the Black Sea Grain Initiative has raised concerns about future trade dynamics and regional stability.
  • The markets had anticipated Russia’s move, and prices for key grains and oilseeds increased only slightly.
  • Wheat futures jumped 3 percent on July 17 but remained well below the peak levels of the previous year.
  • Similarly, corn and soybean futures surged before returning to pre-announcement levels.
  • Despite Russia’s decision, global commodity markets were still relatively favorable.
  • The export ban announced by the Indian government on white rice will lower domestic prices for consumers, but it could also lead to price volatility and higher world prices.
  • The ban is part of heightened global concerns about food prices following Russia’s exit from the BSGI.
  • Rice markets are thin, and a few policy reactions could destabilize the global market. In 2008, for example, rice prices spiked nearly 250 percent in the first quarter of the year (from $375/tonne in January to more than $900/tonne in April) because of various government announcements and export and import policy actions.
  • In May, the price of sed rose 28% from 195,000 to 250,000 kyat ($93 to $119). This reflects the effects of high inflation and currency fluctuations over the past 6 months.
  • In June, the domestic price of emata rice also rose for the 17th consecutive month, reaching a record high.
  • The July 14 issue of a short-term market outlook shows that E.U. farmers’ resilience continues to be challenged, with lower commodity prices and higher-than-average input costs.
  • In addition, E.U. countries experienced difficult weather events in the spring, from droughts and rain deficit to excessive rainfall, resulting in delayed flowering, late sowings, greater risk of pests, and less availability of water, with complete crop destruction in the case of the most severe events. This will decrease total E.U. crop production, especially through reduced yields and quality of several agricultural commodities. In addition to crops, these developments could reduce regional availability.
  • Wheat flour prices continue to increase in Argentina, red beans in Nicaragua, and beans in Central America and the Caribbean.
  • Inflation decreased in June to 9.3 percent from 9.6 percent, 10.1 percent, and 10.3 percent in the past three months.
  • However, food inflation is on the rise in many countries, with prices increasing by more than 2 percent on average.
  • Food prices are increasing in Djibouti, Lebanon, and Iraq.
  • Inflation in food products from July 2022 to June 2023 was 3.2%. This was lower than the global average of 3.8%. Inflation in food products was highest in Afghanistan, Burkina Faso, and Chad.

Primary source

One comment

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *